Note February 7,2018: Rotation of Rotation: Unlike the fear and restructuring of 2007 to early 2009, more recent markets until February 2018 have been about complacency with liberal quantitative ease. Amid volatile trade, internal and global politics worldwide, miscalculations could take place. Even if for currently obscure reasons, likely to be next is rising vigilance […]
Note January 31,2018: Rakers of the Lost Art of Valuation – Amid gasps and contortions to justify markets without corrections (until recently), two realities seem missing. Perfect knowledge (or even efficiency) cannot be assumed, not least at any single point. Further as in the 1990s, the long term role of markets is capital allocation and […]
Note January 26,2018: Q1/2018 – Caveat emptor on market momentum arises due to risk, value and societal stress about the distribution of the benefits of global growth. Amid euphoria, diversification is necessary. In equities, valuation contraction is globally a risk. More effort should be devoted to value and progress in restructuring as opposed to momentum. […]
Note November 7, 2017: Minding the gap of expectations and credibility has been a market issue that has flared multiple times, not least when investors are lulled about risk. Operational changes need to be monitored at several central banks, including at the Federal Reserve despite the aura of continuity in new leadership from February 2018. […]
Note October 29, 2017: Amid the reporting of corporate results and earnings, from politics to change in the global tilt of quantitative ease, numerous events beckon with impact on risk in hitherto complacent markets. Currencies remain worthy of watch as harbingers of volatility. Despite the repute of a U.S. dollar upswing as being negative for […]
Note October 11, 2017: In the decade since the credit debacle into 2007 unleashed crisis, albeit now in a different form, complacency appears returned. Then, complacency was about emerging economy strength, smart central bank policy in advanced countries and the dispersion of capital market risk via derivatives all having resulted in strong secular growth. Currently, […]
Mortals Don’t Walk On Water
Note February 14,2018: Mortals Don’t Walk On Water: Amid capital markets flaring into higher volatility, it is worth recalling that it is normal. Central banks previously have acted as restraining forces on massive deficit financing, currently need to do so but appear too genteel. Extrapolating quantitative ease already engineered does not mean that crowding out […]