Note Mar. 6, 2024: A Quest for Balance – Early 2024 has contained massive upswings in capital markets, globally and across segments. Still, the global political environment from wars to trade to elections is the most tense since the end of the cold war and arguably since the end of World War II. In a […]
Note Feb 16, 2024: In Pushing Ahead Can Lie Market Folies – Capital markets folies in pushing the can ahead should be of concern. Data is reflected in steady/high rates for longer from the Federal Reserve, Bank of Canada, Bank of England and even the ECB despite its national spectrums. While China battles asset deflation […]
Note Jan. 23,2024: Q1/2024 – Market Run On Wild Side. After the FOMC of December 13, 2023 and into early 2024, capital markets globally have run on the wild side ostensibly based on both early Federal Reserve (and others) ease and recovery. Such repositioning has appeared from equities worldwide to junk corporate fixed income; from […]
Note Dec. 14, 2023: Markets Dance – To What Tune Sometimes with mirth, excess euphoria is attributed to retail investors but it is not the entire story. This aspect needs consideration at year end 2023. Whether bespoke or mechanical or in this age of high frequency activity and basically using similar variables, institutions can be […]
Note Nov. 24,2023: Risk Amid Neither-Nor Markets. The equity markets such as the S&P 500 as benchmark appear neither able to reach beyond the highs set at year end 2021. After a decade and half of gains from credit crisis lows, nor do equity markets appear to be willing, to sustain a classical correction node […]
Note Oct. 27,2023: Q4/2023 – Market Joust Against Momentum. We expect a capital market joust encompassing a higher risk premium against the momentum tilt that had accompanied the emergence of quantitative ease from 2008 and which still periodically flares. As valuation imbalances are addressed, we expect linkages between FICCs and equities to rise and elevated […]
Note Sep. 22,2023: Reflective Forbearance Appropriate – In late September 2023, equity behavior has again appeared as if instantaneous gratification could repeat the heyday of quantitative ease. The reality learned by central bankers and others experienced with the 1970s/80s has been that for impact on inflation and behavior, policy has to be tighter and for […]
Note Aug. 18,2023: Not Lazy, Hazy Summer for 2023. It is not a lazy, hazy summer for 2023, neither climatologically from droughts to floods to wild fires and nor for risk premiums versus momentum in capital markets. The war in Ukraine has revived talk about a new cold war but the Soviet system was not […]
Note June 21,2023: Q3/2023 –Transitions To Selectivity and Valuation, From Yield Suppression and Momentum. We assess that more volatile currencies as well as more focus on spreads between markets are likely to extend. It would be quite different from the prior environment of quantitative ease and quantum differences notwithstanding, with shades of prior decades of […]
Note Apr. 21 2024: Capital Markets Sketch Change
Note Apr. 21 2024: Q2/2024 – Capital Markets Sketch Change – In late April 2024, exogenous and internal facets underscore that capital markets have started to sketch change. It will likely be abrupt and rocky. Amid a massive election period and tepid global growth, outright physical and trade wars exist. A missed opportunity worldwide has […]