Note Précis May 15,2018: Real & Trade, Proxy and Proximity Wars – Arguably after many decades, political economy brinkmanship seems alive. Contrary to strategic doctrine to not initiate two front confrontations, the U.S. appears willing to engage simultaneously on trade and geopolitics with friends and rivals alike. Real and trade policy trade tensions have been […]
Note Précis May 9,2018: Multipolar Jolt and Grind Markets – Since early 2018, investments have likely entered into multipolar jolt and grind capital market performance. As such, they have likely evolved from a decade long tryst with massive quantitative ease as dominant interlocutor. In fact in Zurich on May 8, 2018, the Federal Reserve Chairman […]
Note Précis May 2,2018: Uncomfortable Light of Being Belligerently Brusque – In geopolitics over North Korea and Iran policy, the risks are those of lost credibility in being belligerently brusque and then being weak in follow through. Iran especially is far more diverse than North Korea. In appearing capricious in both the claims and the […]
Note Précis April 25,2018: Inflection Still Looms – In the equities, fixed income, currencies and commodities space of capital markets as well as in politics, whether raw or on trade. The Federal Reserve with a new Chairman has emphasis on reducing its massive quantitative ease, likely with other central banks at differing paces. Unlike say […]
Note Précis April 21,2018: Q2/2018 – Markets, Algorithms and the Political Economy. Adding up to expanded volatility when compared to 2017 are the actual market levels of today in equities and fixed income, the new algorithmic data centricity of today and the assumptions of many market and economic models compared to more classical behavioral views […]
Risk Premiums, Inconsistencies and Weak Links
Note Précis May 23,2018: Risk Premiums, Inconsistencies and Weak Links – In any market, risk premiums need monitoring, not just in overall terms but also at weak links for creaks and inconsistencies. Many rationalizations are tardy, after the fact of breaks. Currently all more so than in the past, global links do matter. Politicians prefer […]