Note February 8,2019: Markets On Worn Path- Subsequent to the start of 2019, we have been watching capital markets for points of reactive sensitivity. It seems to us that the markets remain on their worn path of this cycle, namely being overriding in dependence on central bank intonations, especially from the Federal Reserve; being willing […]
Note January 24,2019: Our take from the parable of Humpty Dumpty is that breaking something is a lot easier than was putting it together, let alone patching it up after breakage. Students of the political economy need to recognize the United States and British leadership from Bretton Woods in 1944 and many subsequent agreements versus […]
Note January 8,2019: Checks and Balances Overdue – Well beyond politics, checks and balances seem overdue. They include the behavior and pricing of capital markets. In politics, checks and balances are still to gel in trade, in the Middle East cauldron with a new focal point of Syria, around Europe, in east Asia and not least […]
Note January 3,2019: Assess Market Continuum Over Distinct Frames – Phrases like risk on/risk off and santa claus rally in markets or for that matter use of breaking news generally may sound pithy but in fact tend to reinforce considering events as distinct frames. However and much as in motion pictures, going frame by frame […]
Note November 4,2018: Salient Divergences from Past. The to-and-fro swings in equity markets and an unmistakable rise in fixed income yields from their cycle lows indicate a salient channel of divergencies from assumptions that until recently were commonplace in capital markets. A new level of uncertainty in Europe has been injected with a series of […]
Note October 29,2018: Alternate Universe – Recurring vs. Amplitude of Delivery. Over the decade of massive quantitative ease, the generally accepted universe has been one of ample liquidity and of low interest rate policies including the suppression of fixed income yields. Progress has been uneven and the efficacy of prolonging quantitative ease has become questionable. […]
Note October 15,2018: Q4/2018 – A Time for Reappraisal not Jingoism: Our asset mix focal point in this cycle has been on the unusual nature and extent of quantitative ease with the collateral side effects potentially obscure but likely to unfold with the passage of time. Hence, we have suggested above benchmark cash reserves, fixed […]
Note September 26,2018 – Search Beyond QE For More Solid Ground: After a decade of basking in quantitative ease that in equities included massive mainly U.S. share buy backs, capital markets will likely search for different solid ground. Capital markets will potentially be more volatile. Common for more mature phase capital markets, fraying in 2018 […]
Note September 12,2018: Foggy Clarity- As this market cycle has lengthened and as in many prior ones, foggy clarity protestations appear such as suggesting near term corrections could occur but also about being bullish for the long term. They arguably appear as throwaway. Afterall, few would be in an endeavor which they felt was doomed […]
Considering The Tides of March
Note February 26,2019: Considering The Tides of March – Since 2009 with fleeting deviations, capital markets have come to be fixated on central bank policy, especially from the Federal Reserve. Its Semi-Annual Testimony to Congress of February 26, 2019, signals interregnum in rate increases and balance sheet reduction. Central banks may be anxious to not […]