Note Précis June 27,2019: Irregular Volatility Flareups- Amid recent capital market behavior, central bank stances and political developments worldwide, we reassert that diversification is needed. Assets like precious metals and cash should be part of an investment portfolio. Quality has relevance, irrespective of instant gratification. Perceived liquidity is not equivalent to real such. Over three […]
Note Précis June 12,2019: Volatility Warp Adds Up to What – Into mid-2019 in this market cycle, it is appropriate to assess what volatility warp adds up to. At the systemic level, recent events and challenges of the last decade exist amid a creep of politics back more into monetary affairs. As opposed to trader […]
Note Précis May 30,2019: Assessing the Valuation Weave- Unspecific developments that could suddenly flare are reasons for safety margins in industries from engineered products to food. That need for risk premiums appears currently skimmed over in capital markets. Central bank activity in general and especially quantitative ease have directly affected valuation in fixed income. Yet, […]
Note Précis May 1,2019: Markets Trysting the Night Away- In late 2018 and early 2019, there appeared only a brief pause to consider the long term impact of curbing quantitative ease. Now, markets appear again reverting to momentum whiletrysting the night away based on quantitative ease remaining massive led notably by the Federal Reserve and […]
Note Précis April 13,2019: Q2/2019 – Conundrum Rests With Central Banks: Markets appear reverting in early Q2/2019 to in this cycle, once more focusing on quantitative ease, momentum and taking cues from the United States amid slowing global growth. Just a cycle or two prior to this one and from central bankers, gaining currency in […]
Note Précis March 27,2019: More of the Same and yet Different- At a mature phase of capital markets, more of the same appears and yet seems different at the same time. Compared to prior cycles of hubris, companies do appear more cognizant of the importance of revenues, margins and the like. Still needing care are […]
Note Précis March 13,2019: Contrary Core Developments – Contrary to our expectations for better balance, intense interplay remains between quantitative ease driven central bank policy and capital market activity. For instance and as often in this cycle, when concern builds on equities or elsewhere, major sovereign country benchmark fixed income yields decline, even flirting with […]
Note Précis March 5,2019: Market Probing Forays, Likely Nothing More – Even as much is being made about the equity market recovery from the lows of late 2018, we see the more recent and volatile to-and-fro activity as being probing forays, likely nothing more. The Federal Reserve has announced a hiatus in rate increases as […]
Note Précis February 26,2019: Considering The Tides of March – Since 2009 with fleeting deviations, capital markets have come to be fixated on central bank policy, especially from the Federal Reserve. Its Semi-Annual Testimony to Congress of February 26, 2019, signals interregnum in rate increases and balance sheet reduction. Central banks may be anxious to […]
Valuation versus Meeting Consensus as Market Driver
Note Précis July 10,2019: Valuation versus Meeting Consensus as Market Driver – Investing requires a broader context than momentum, whether at the country or company level. Capital market valuation is elevated. Consensus growth was cut and low for example for S&P 500 earnings and declining for global economic growth. Meeting consensus as market sufficing has […]