Note Précis July 27,2018: Q3/2018 – Much Ado About A Lot. Unlike the experience of recent years, friction between fiscal policy and monetary strictures have been more of a norm within which capital markets operate, most recently into the 1990s. It makes risk premium vigilance necessary. Given the size and duration of quantitative ease fostering […]
Note Précis July 18,2018: A Chockful of Developments – A chockful of developments range from politics to policy to growth and into corporate reporting season. In politics, it has already been extraordinary. The emergence of checks and balances is overdue but does remain to be seen. The potential impact of the faux pas of late […]
Note Précis July 11,2018: A Question of Balance – Equity markets extrude large index level point moves. A question of balance still prevails. It includes that between transactional activity versus a long term strategic focus. This balance has been under pressure. It is so not just in politics for instance in the rise of populism […]
Note Précis June 27,2018: Neither Spiraling Nor Soaring Markets – As the first half of 2018 draws to a close, prevailing events mean neither spiraling nor soaring markets are likely. A readjustment of risk premiums is needed in the current cycle, divergent from the complacency prior to 2018. Daily and intraday swings of 2% in […]
Note Précis June 15,2018: No Lazy, Hazy Time – The summer of 2018 is likely to be no lazy, hazy time. Three immediate aspects loom for capital markets, namely trade which is the lifeblood of economies; local and worldwide politics that are the lifeblood of stability; and central bank policies which are the lifeblood of […]
Note Précis May 23,2018: Risk Premiums, Inconsistencies and Weak Links – In any market, risk premiums need monitoring, not just in overall terms but also at weak links for creaks and inconsistencies. Many rationalizations are tardy, after the fact of breaks. Currently all more so than in the past, global links do matter. Politicians prefer […]
Note Précis May 15,2018: Real & Trade, Proxy and Proximity Wars – Arguably after many decades, political economy brinkmanship seems alive. Contrary to strategic doctrine to not initiate two front confrontations, the U.S. appears willing to engage simultaneously on trade and geopolitics with friends and rivals alike. Real and trade policy trade tensions have been […]
Note Précis May 9,2018: Multipolar Jolt and Grind Markets – Since early 2018, investments have likely entered into multipolar jolt and grind capital market performance. As such, they have likely evolved from a decade long tryst with massive quantitative ease as dominant interlocutor. In fact in Zurich on May 8, 2018, the Federal Reserve Chairman […]
Note Précis May 2,2018: Uncomfortable Light of Being Belligerently Brusque – In geopolitics over North Korea and Iran policy, the risks are those of lost credibility in being belligerently brusque and then being weak in follow through. Iran especially is far more diverse than North Korea. In appearing capricious in both the claims and the […]
Data Driven Versus Whimsy Oriented
Note Précis August 14,2018: Data Driven versus Whimsy Oriented – At present, data driven versus whimsy considerations have wide relevance – from the interface between politics and trade to capital markets and valuation to central bank policies. In addition to global conflagration over terrorism that is difficult to incorporate except in extremis, volatility in the […]