Note Précis January 24,2019: Our take from the parable of Humpty Dumpty is that breaking something is a lot easier than was putting it together, let alone patching it up after breakage. Students of the political economy need to recognize the United States and British leadership from Bretton Woods in 1944 and many subsequent agreements […]
Note Précis January 8,2019: Checks and Balances Overdue – Well beyond politics, checks and balances seem overdue. They include the behavior and pricing of capital markets. In politics, checks and balances are still to gel in trade, in the Middle East cauldron with a new focal point of Syria, around Europe, in east Asia and not […]
Note Précis January 3,2019: Assess Market Continuum Over Distinct Frames – Phrases like risk on/risk off and santa claus rally in markets or for that matter use of breaking news generally may sound pithy but in fact tend to reinforce considering events as distinct frames. However and much as in motion pictures, going frame by […]
Note Précis November 4,2018: Salient Divergences from Past. The to-and-fro swings in equity markets and an unmistakable rise in fixed income yields from their cycle lows indicate a salient channel of divergencies from assumptions that until recently were commonplace in capital markets. A new level of uncertainty in Europe has been injected with a series […]
Note Précis October 29,2018: Alternate Universe – Recurring vs. Amplitude of Delivery. Over the decade of massive quantitative ease, the generally accepted universe has been one of ample liquidity and of low interest rate policies including the suppression of fixed income yields. Progress has been uneven and the efficacy of prolonging quantitative ease has become […]
Note Précis October 15,2018: Q4/2018 – A Time for Reappraisal not Jingoism: Our asset mix focal point in this cycle has been on the unusual nature and extent of quantitative ease with the collateral side effects potentially obscure but likely to unfold with the passage of time. Hence, we have suggested above benchmark cash reserves, […]
Note Précis September 26,2018 – Search Beyond QE For More Solid Ground: After a decade of basking in quantitative ease that in equities included massive mainly U.S. share buy backs, capital markets will likely search for different solid ground. Capital markets will potentially be more volatile. Common for more mature phase capital markets, fraying in […]
Note Précis September 12,2018: Foggy Clarity- As this market cycle has lengthened and as in many prior ones, foggy clarity protestations appear such as suggesting near term corrections could occur but also about being bullish for the long term. They arguably appear as throwaway. Afterall, few would be in an endeavor which they felt was […]
Note Précis September 4,2018: Forewarned Is To Be Forearmed – In the markets as elsewhere, to be forewarned is to be forearmed. Especially U.S. led, equities have been in a seemingly relentless upswing with little correction, valuation notwithstanding. Fixed income yields have remained low, with only the curious mix of U.S. Treasury, BBB Corporates and […]
Markets On Worn Path
Note Précis February 8,2019: Markets On Worn Path- Subsequent to the start of 2019, we have been watching capital markets for points of reactive sensitivity. It seems to us that the markets remain on their worn path of this cycle, namely being overriding in dependence on central bank intonations, especially from the Federal Reserve; being […]